This board shows what the Gaussian Hoops Star Model would have predicted for the 2022 NBA Draft class — using only pre-draft college stats and measurements available at draft time.
Star% is the model's retroactive probability that a player becomes an NBA star. Sorted by Star% to show model ranking vs. actual pick.
Outcome reflects actual NBA career tier through the 2024–25 season (3 years of data).
✅ Model Validation: On the 2022 class, the model ranked 6 of the 8 actual Stars in the top 12 (75% hit rate).
Notable miss: Christian Braun (Pick 21, Star) ranked 19th by model — DCS2 signal was moderate, age slightly above average.
Notable hit: Jalen Williams (Pick 12) ranked 7th — model identified as undervalued.