🏀 NBA DRAFT BOARD 2026
Prospect rankings powered by DCS v2 — Draft Ceiling Score, our research-validated draft metric built from five components: Physical Upside (PUI), Shooting Talent (STI), Athleticism (AC), Playmaking (PMI), and Scoring Efficiency (SEU). Age and class-year multipliers reward youth and penalise senior production. Competition-level adjustments discount Low-Major stats. Validated against 2020–2024 draft classes: ρ = 0.39 Spearman correlation with actual pick numbers (vs ρ = 0.10 for raw stats).
Validation: DCS v2 tested on 5 draft classes (2020–2024, n≈230 picks). Best in 2023 (ρ = +0.55). Measurements data for current prospects improves as combine season approaches. This is a ceiling model — it intentionally overweights youth and physical tools.

DCS v2 is a composite draft-ceiling signal. Unlike production metrics (PPG, PER), it weights attributes that translate to the NBA over college dominance that doesn't.

ComponentWeightWhat it measures
PUI Physical Upside25%Wingspan ratio + standing reach, percentiled within position group. Missing → neutral 50.
STI Shooting Talent22%Bayesian 3P% + FT% + TS% + 3P attempt rate. Bayesian shrinkage handles small samples.
AC Athleticism20%Position-adjusted STL% + BLK% + ORB%. Proxy for athleticism via stat-line impact.
PMI Playmaking18%AST% × 0.40 + AST/TO × 0.40 + USG% × 0.20. Measures creation and decision quality.
SEU Scoring Efficiency15%TS% above expected at that usage level (regression residual). Rewards efficient scorers.

Multipliers applied after composite:

Age multiplier: 18yo = ×1.65, 19yo = ×1.35, 20yo = ×1.12, 21yo = ×1.00, 22yo = ×0.85, 23yo+ = ×0.70

Class multiplier: Fr = ×1.00, So = ×0.97, Jr = ×0.88, Sr = ×0.75 (ceiling is largely known)

Tier multiplier: Power 5 = ×1.00, High-Major = ×0.95, Mid-Major = ×0.88, Low-Major = ×0.78

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# Player Pos Cls Age Team Tier DCS v2 ↓ PUI STI AC PMI SEU PPG